Grammy trophies are decided in a room, but careers are built in the arena. While the Recording Academy debates 'artistic merit,' we looked at the one metric that doesn’t lie: the opening of wallets.

Using anonymized ticketing data from Gametime, we analyzed live-event demand for each nominee: how many tickets fans bought, how quickly they bought them, and how that demand changed after Grammy nominations were announced.

Our Method

Look, we can't put an exact science to art. But instead of a single metric for each award category, we compared nominees across a consistent set of signals:

Market Share: For every category, we calculated the Share of Category Demand. This isn’t just another popularity contest; it’s about which nominee dominates the total volume of ticket sales within their specific peer group.

Fan momentum: We checked how ticket sales changed after nominations were announced and in the weeks leading up to Grammy night.

Scale and value: We looked at total tickets sold, tickets sold per show, and what fans were willing to pay.

We weighted some signals more heavily based on the nature of the award. Awards tied to albums favored sustained demand, while awards tied to songs, comedy, or new artists leaned more heavily on recent momentum and urgency.

The bottom line: This isn't a guess at what voters think; it’s our report on what fans did.

The Awards

Best New Artist

Olivia Dean
KATSEYE
The Marias
Addison Rae
sombr (Winner)
Leon Thomas
Alex Warren (Runner Up)

Mainstream predictions here were sharply divided: Pitchfork favored sombr, while the Los Angeles Times leaned toward Olivia Dean, and outlets like The Guardian echoed that split. ECR also framed the category as wide open, naming sombr among several plausible winners. Ticket data broke the tie—but sombr ultimately beat out runner-up Alex Warren by less than 3 percentage points of market share, reflecting a close race. And if we're somehow right on this one, we will pretend it was all skill and no luck.

Album of the Year

Bad Bunny, “Debí Tirar Más Fotos” (Runner Up)
Justin Bieber, “Swag”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Man’s Best Friend”
Clipse, “Let God Sort Em Out”
Lady Gaga, “Mayhem”
Kendrick Lamar, “GNX” (Winner)
Leon Thomas, “Mutt”
Tyler, the Creator, “Chromakopia”

Album of the Year predictions varied widely across outlets. Pitchfork framed the race around Lady Gaga and Bad Bunny, while the Los Angeles Times ultimately backed Kendrick Lamar, and AP News described it as a three-way showdown. Ticket sales supported Lamar’s case decisively: GNX generated the strongest long-term demand of any nominee, though his market share lead (29.2% vs Bad Bunny's 26.2%) was narrower than the durability of that demand might suggest. We'll see if this award lives up to its "Of the Year" title, or turns out to be more like the "Album of Recent News."

Record of the Year

Bad Bunny, “DTMF”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Doechii, “Anxiety”
Billie Eilish, “Wildflower”
Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”
Kendrick Lamar with SZA, “Luther” (Winner)
Chappell Roan, “The Subway”
Rosé and Bruno Mars, “Apt.”

This category showed rare agreement across models. The Los Angeles Timesand multiple betting odds all favored “Luther,” citing momentum and Grammy-friendly familiarity, while The Guardian also pointed to its broad appeal. Ticket data mirrored that consensus, with Kendrick Lamar and SZA showing the strongest market share at 35.9%, nearly double Bad Bunny's 19.2%. If you're here to cheat on your own Grammy predictions score card, risk it all on this category.

Best Comedy Album

Comedy categories tend to receive less critical scrutiny, leaving predictions scattered or absent across major outlets. Ticket data filled that gap decisively. Nate Bargatze didn't just win Comedy—he obliterated it with 71.3% market share, nearly 4x runner-up Bill Burr's 19.5%. He led all nominees in total tickets sold and tickets per show, translating broad, nationwide appeal into consistent sellouts, an unmistakable popular-vote win. Seriously, the credibility of this article will be in the toilet if this one doesn't pan out .

Best Musical Theater Album

Most coverage of musical theater categories skewed toward legacy titles and revivals, with little consensus across major publications. Fan media told a different story: commentary and rankings from The Needle Drop highlighted Maybe Happy Ending as a standout among newer productions. Ticket demand confirmed it, with sales accelerating after nominations and outpacing more established contenders. We're curious to see if the prestigious Grammy voters align with the real musical theater geeks on this one.

Are We Full of It?

Let's be real. Our analysis reflects ticket-buying behavior on Gametime during a specific window—not the complete picture of an artist's fanbase. Artists who didn't tour during our analysis period, who sell primarily through other platforms, or whose tours fell outside our data collection window won't be fully represented. These predictions measure fan engagement as expressed through live events—a meaningful signal, but not the only one that matters.

What the Popular Vote Tells Us

The Grammys are decided by a committee behind closed doors. Our data offers a parallel reality: an awards show decided by the people who keep the lights on in the music industry.

Across every category, ticket sales reveal exactly where hype meets reality. Sometimes the data aligns with the critics; other times, it reveals where critical consensus and fan turnout diverge.

While the Recording Academy hands out the trophies on Sunday, the "Popular Vote" has already been cast. These winners didn't just win a ballot—they earned the time, money, and devotion of their fans, one ticket at a time.